Duncanations
random thoughts, ideas, and ruminations by Jason Duncan
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Space Time "Khan"-tinuum

Are you ever to old to think about what you want to do when you grow up?  I hope not because I'm still thinking about it.

The first time I considered this was in first grade.  At six years old we were asked to write what we would do in 20 years.  On that extra wide-ruled paper, I wrote two or three sentences stating that I would be the first astronaut to go to Mars.  (I had lofty goals at that young age.)  I've almost given up on that dream, especially since I'm ten years too late and the fact that the government no longer thinks there's a societal benefit to exploration and creating a sense of wonder and interest in discovery.

The next time I thought about my future was in sixth grade at the age of 12.  I wrote in a one-page essay that in 15 years I would be an architect and live in Winston-Salem.  It's amazing that I had this dream of being an architect long before George Costanza made it cool to dream about being an architect.  Still yet, that's not really too far from where I am today.

By the eleventh grade, I was going to be an engineer and build things.  Over the next few years that morphed from computers to electrical to mechanical.  The common theme so far is that all of these jobs are in the field of science and math.

About ten years ago I visited a piano bar and watched two guys play all kinds of music on demand by request and I decided that would be a cool job.  The only problem is that I can just barely play the piano well enough to entertain mystelf, and certainly not well enough for anyone to want to listen.  This wasn't happening any time soon.

Over the last few years I've thought about doing genealogy research professionally.  While this is much more realistic than my musical aspirations, I'm not exactly sure how I could make a living doing this.  I'm good at it and really enjoy this type of detective work, but the challenge is finding a customer base.  I haven't lost hope on this plan yet.

That brings us to now.  My latest idea is more vague, but still consistent with my math and science theme.  Last year I discovered Khan Academy.  This began as a project created by Sal Khan as an online resource for learning math.  It has since evolved into an amazing collection of videos and instructional tools to educate individuals and classrooms math, science, and an ever-growing assortment of other topics.  This is a non-profit endeavor that's receiving acclaim from educators, the media, and billionaires like Bill Gates.  Last year Khan was introduced by Bill Gates at the annual TED conference which is dedicated to spreading new ideas.

Watching Sal Khan give a presentation or do an interview about what he and his team have accomplished is extremely inspiring.  I strongly urge everyone to watch the above-linked video and to visit their website.  My next dream job is to somehow be involved with Khan Academy.  I'm not sure how, but this is just too exciting to miss out on.  And that fact that it focuses primarly on math and science allows it to fill an ever-widening gap in education.  Our ability to innovate, invent, and create new technologies over the coming decades depends heavily on not only teaching math and science, but also on creating a passion for it.  It may be too late for me to go to another planet, but if we can get kids to start thinking that science is cool now, maybe one day at least they'll get to go.  In the meantime, maybe I should take piano lessons.

Mail Pattern Boldness

Life is full of changes, and while these changes are often difficult, we must adapt and move forward. 

Sometimes we must do without something that we've grown accustomed to having for our entire lives.  For some this causes grief and anxiety, and for others it causes confusion and misunderstanding about what the future truely holds in store for us.

I've experienced such an event.  This event -- neah, this series of events -- has never happened to me before.  Today was the fourth day in a row that I received no mail from the usually trusty mailman.  Oh sure, we've all gone one or two days with no mail, and I've even gone three days once before.  But now I am clearly in uncharted terrority.

No letters.  No bills.  No fliers from Family Dollar advertising Body Fantasies body spray at only $5 for 2!  (And you konw it has that unique Japanese Cherry Blossom scent!)  No anything.  Each day it's just an empty mailbox.  And, to make it worse, tomorrow is Sunday and we all know what happens on Sunday.  That's right:  no mail!

Each day I watch my neighbors proudly open their mailboxes and pull out the exciting contents.  (Cue the slow motion video and watch the smiling faces.)  But I'm stuck in this unprecedented mail delivery pattern, and I'm forced to face it with boldness and determination.  "Each time, hoping that my next leap will be the leap home" or something like that.

Remembrance Of Things Past

After the longest drought in my blog's three year history, it's time for another post.  Actually, I just spent the last hour reading my own blog.  You know, there's some good stuff in here!  Of course there's a few duds, too, but that's the way it goes.

In the earliest days of 2009, I discovered/remembered that I didn't have pictures to illustrate my posts.  Back then, money was tight and pictures just didn't fit into my blogging budget.  By the end of June of that year, the quality of the posts seemed to improve.  One of my favorites is the five-part James Bond story that began on July 1.  When I started writing it I had no clue where it would go, but I like how it turned out.  Spoiler Alert:  Bond saves the day.

There have been lots of posts on TV reception and antennas, and several posts involving real world math problems that are interesting to me if not to anyone else.  My favorite math story is Why Did The Turtle Cross The Road in September 2010.  My long-running series The POWERs That Be involving my electricity usage began in February 2010.

I was proud of my 2009 prediction about the 2011 Ted Williams story and his "magical voice".  The Freedom Sheering post is also a fan favorite (OK, maybe I'm the only fan).

I've tried my hand at alliteration in the pickle story, and offered a detailed analysis of the best time to buy a Christmas gift.  I've even gotten into multimedia with my Black Eyed Peas song spoof You Hurt My Feelings, and my video version of the Muppet Movie.

So, nothing new here, but I'm hoping this post puts me back in the mood to write again.  I think it will.

An Aunt, Not A Byrd: Mary E. Bauguess

It's always nice when you find something that you didn't know you had lost.  And it's nice when you realize you have something that you didn't know you had.  That happened yesterday when I realized I had misidentified an old picture that I had gotten a few years ago.

William McKinley Billings was an interesting man.  He was born in 1848 and married Mary E. Byrd in 1868.  Tthey lived in Lomax, south of Traphill in Wilkes Co.  They had nine children together before she died in 1892.  Three years later William remarried, and his second wife's name was Mary E. Bauguess.  I've always thought it strange -- or at least ironic -- that both of his wives were named Mary E., with the "E." likely standing for Elizabeth for both of them.

William died in 1919 and his second wife outlived him by nearly 20 years.  I have two pictures of William McKinley's second wife, but for some reason I always assumed it was Mary E. Byrd.  Now I realize that she is actually Mary E. Bauguess, my great-great-grandfather's sister.  When I compare her picture to pictures of her brothers, I see a resemblance.  Now, if I could just find pictures of the other four siblings, I'd have the whole family!  I'll keep looking.


My Mini Muppet Movie

Ten years ago I had plenty of time on my hands.  I was trying to decide what to do with all this free time when the phone rang.  As luck would have it, it was my good friend Garrison Keillor.  After a brief chat of him asking me for story ideas for his next installment of The News On Lake Wobegon, I told him about my situation.  He said, "Well, why don't you produce your own show?"  I hadn't thought of that, so I asked him what kind of show.  He said I should do a variety show similar to what he does on the radio.  That sounded like a good idea.

Two days later, I call my good friend in the movie business, Frank Oz.  I told him that I wanted to produce a variety show, and I asked if he could help me out.  He thought for a minute and said he did in fact know of someone who could help.  He would have someone call me in a few days.  "Well, who is it?", I asked.  He said only that this performer was short in stature, but big on personality.  Great!

The next day the phone rang, and I immediately recognized a familiar voice.  "Hi ho, Jason," he greeted me.  "This is Kermit THE Frog, and I hear you want to make a movie."  I was astonished that I was talking to this talented and world-renowned celebrity!  We pitched a few ideas at each other, and eventually we had an idea for a short movie -- a sort of variety show starring some of Kermit's popular friends.

And so, here it is.  Produced in 2001 on a shoestring budget, and making its national debut ten years later -- and in honor of the Muppets latest movie just released in theaters -- here is My Mini Muppet Movie.

View it on YouTube:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfFtTyACbOs.

No More Number Two

The world is facing a serious crisis.  The government doesn't have a solution, and as it turns out, evidence suggests that the government is actually responsible for creating this terrible dilemma facing each and every one of us -- especially all the little children.

Of course I'm talking about the impending shortage of helium, element #2 in the Periodic Table.  The gas that gives flight to balloons of all shapes and sizes is expected to run out in 25 years.  Why now?  Apparently, during the Cold War, the US stockpiled huge amounts of helium to be used for rockets and missiles aimed at the Soviet Union and other bad guys.  This storage facility continued to grow until it held over half the world's supply.  Then, in 1996 Congress decided we shouldn't be in the helium storage business any longer and that we should sell all our helium at any cost.  The goal was to sell exactly 5% every year until it was all gone in 2015. 

This caused a surplus in the helium market and prices plunged to the point that helium was so cheap that no one tried to recycle it, contain it, or use it sparingly.  Party balloons became so cheap that they were being used to move entire houses.  Oh, how vain!

Today, as the Federal helium reserve north of Amarillo, TX, is nearly empty, the world's helium supply is nearly gone.  Why can't we just get more of it?  As it turns out, helium is obtained as a bi-product of natural gas extraction.  It is formed over millions and billions of years as rock decays.  Once we've used up all we have, I suppose we'll have to wait another billion years for another rock to decay.  I hope somebody's got a deck of cards, because we're going to be waiting for a long long time.

Lots of important stuff uses helium like MRI scanners, blimps, rockets, and other scientific gadgets.  In another 25 years, Snoopy won't be able to fly over Sunday Night Football games any more.  He'll just have to buy a ticket like everyone else.  His days of privilege are nearly over, and he'll soon be just like the rest of us:  stuck on the ground and surrounded by only nitrogen, oxygen, 1% argon, and 0.03% other assorted gases and dust particles.


Say No To Gas And Go

Who is this man? 

His face and his message greet us every time we stop at a NC gas pump.  But this isn't simply a logo or a cartoon character.  This is a real person who's somewhere out there, on the streets, along the highways protecting us.  I wonder if he won the Highway Patrol lottery to become the face of the gas pump.  Or, maybe he was the loser who drew the short straw and had to become the face of the gas pump.

Either way, he looks pretty tough, and I'm sure he has discouraged at least a few low-lifes who had considered doing the 'pump and run'.  Then again, are there any gas stations out there that still allow you to pump before paying?  I'm sure there's a few, but the new process of paying first has made him less relevant than he once was.

Maybe he's not even a real officer.  Maybe he's a model who is posing as an officer.  Or, as Jon Lovitz would say, "He's an Ac-Tor!"  You know who would have made a great spokesman for the 'Fill Up and Pay Up' campaign?  Mr. T.  I can see him saying, "I pity the fool who doesn't pay for his gas."  Or, how about Foghorn Leghorn:  "I say, ya gotta pay for your gas or, or pay the consequences, son."  Betty White would make a good ambassador because she's convincing at just about anything she does.  Under a picture of her smiling face, the caption would simply read, "Pay".

If you ever do meet this guy, please don't be tempted to treat him like a celebrity.  And whatever you do, don't ask for his autograph!  He just might give it to you, in the form of an invitation to come visit him at work.

A Dime A Dozen And A Dollar

I was in the third grade when I realized I was special.  I couldn't believe that I had overlooked this fact for so many years -- all nine of them!  It was in the middle of class, but when I made this discovery I had to fight the urge to raise my hand and tell the teacher and all my classmates.  But I didn't.  I kept it to myself for a few minutes, and made sure I hadn't made a mistake.  I double checked my spelling to make sure I hadn't somehow switched the letters.  Nope.  The data was in, and it was official:  I was special.

It came to me while looking at a calendar that listed the months of the year.  And that's it.  It was just staring me in the face.  The first six months of the year were nothing -- they were useless to me.  The magic began with the month of July:

J uly
A ugust
S eptember
O ctober
N ovember
D ecember

The first letter of each month spelled my name!  Wow!  How amazing is that!   Sure, there were other kids who were named after months like April, May, and June, but it took six consecutive months to make my name!

But it was the month of December that put me over the top.  You see, the name "Jason" was as common in my class as "Jeeves" is for butlers.  It was a dime a dozen.  In fact, a whopping 10% of our class was named Jason.  I shared this alphabetic peculiarity with 4 or 5 others.  What made me extra special was that I was the only Jason whose last name started with a "D".  And in a class full of Jasons, of course I always signed my assignments as "Jason D.".  For centuries, my name had been plastered on calendars in every school, church, office building, and checkbook.  And now that I knew this fact, I was determined that it would be a secret no more.

Eventually, I got up and showed the teacher what I had discovered.  She said something like, "Oh, that's nice."  So much for being special.  Ever since, all my attempts to use this fact to gain fame and fortune have failed.  I'm just like everybody else:  my name and a dollar will get me a Bojangles iced tea.


Up, Up, And Gone Away

This is a sad day.  The final space shuttle flight launched today, but that's nothing to be disappointed about.  The shuttle marks 30 proud years -- out of a total of 50 years -- of manned space flight following the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo missions.  The sad part is that we have no manned program on the horizon to carry us forward. 

Nothing captures the excitement, enthusiasm, and imagination of the nation collectively as much as the idea of sending a person into space.  While politicians cite the cost of these programs, it's easy to forget the health benefits of giving the entire country something to rally behind.  The pioneering effort that NASA exhibited a few decades ago could only help boost the nation's morale which in turn might just help the economy.  I saw a statistic today that said the recent bank bailout exceeded the entire 50 year budget of NASA!  Imagine the places we could go if only the dedication and leadership existed to do it.

Hopefully America's return to manned space flight -- and the day will come -- will take us to new places we've never been.  Mars is always a popular option; and Jupiter's moon Europa is another good possibility.  Lately there's been talk about landing an unmanned craft on a comet, but that doesn't exactly give me goosebumps.  We need to start by returning to the moon for the first time since 1972, just to refresh our memory on how to land on something.  After that, it's time to explore strange new worlds, to seek out new life and new civilizations, to boldly go where no one has gone before.

The Powers That Be (7): And The Heat Goes On

For the past 365 days I've logged the daily high and low temperatures and plotted it against my daily energy consumption.  After much anticipation, the results are in:  it costs more to run the heat pump or air conditioner than it does to NOT run the heat pump or air conditioner.  If you're satisfied with that conclusion, you can stop reading.  If you want to know the details, read on.

Below is a graph with 365 data points representing my energy consumption and the daily average temperature.  I define the "average temperature" as the midpoint between the high and the low for the day.


While the "average temperature" is not a perfect measure of how hot or cold is was over the course of a day, it's a fairly predictable indicator of how much energy I'll use for the day.  I'll consume the least amount of energy on a day when the average temperature is about 61 degrees (for example when the low is 50 degrees and the high is 72 degrees).  On that day I would expect to use about 9 kwH, and a cost of about $0.10/kwH, that would cost me 90 cents. 

On the hottest day in the summer I would likely use over 40 kwH for a daily cost of $4.00.  On the other end of the curve, on the coldest winter day, I could use 70 kwH, costing $7.00.  I'm surprised at how both sides of the curve have the same slope.  I would have expected either cooling or heating to have a better efficiency than the other, but they're nearly the same.  The only reason that winter costs are more than summer costs is because it often gets 35 degrees colder than ideal, while it rarely gets warmer than 20 degrees above ideal.

Now I'll draw some conclusions.  My total energy consumption for the year was 9,010 kwH, or an average of 25 kwH/day.  In the best weather conditions (i.e. when I don't run the heat pump or air conditioner), I still consume 9 kwH/day.  Therefore, it's safe to deduce that 16 kwH (or, 64%) of my annual energy use is to heat or cool the house.  Everything else that uses electricity -- TV, lights, computer, refrigerator, dishwasher, water heater,  door bell -- accounts for only 36%. 

I've never had a day where I used less than 7 kwH, even when I was out of town.  Therefore, items such as TV, lights, and computer account for about 2 kwH (or, 8%) of my usage.  Therefore, about 7 kwH (or, 27%) of my energy usage is for things that run all the time such as the refrigerator and water heater.

At 64% of my usage, the biggest opportunity I have for cutting energy costs is a more efficient HVAC system.  That could mean anything from installing an 18 SEER system for thousands of dollars to planting a shade tree to keep the sun off the house in the summer.  For now I'll do nothing except continue to document my usage.

If anyone has actually made it this far, I'll present two more graphs.  One shows the correlation between my daily energy usage and the high temperature, and the other to the low temperature.  The daily high temperature is a slightly better predictor of energy usage.  It tracks more closely than the daily low temperature.





Or, you can always use these images as a pixelated version of a Rorschach Test.

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